$SPX Potential H&S (Update)

June 10, 2010 · Posted in Head and Shoulders · 2 Comments 

After few negative bias days, $SPX may be attempting to rally to form potential H&S pattern. The last SwingHigh was on April 26th at 1219.8. The Fib. retracement levels of 50% is at 1131 and 62% is at 1152. The first hurdle to reach this level is 200-SMA at 1107. If SPX passes this level, it may reach 1130-1150 level easily. We’ll evaluate at that level to see if it is a second-shoulder. See the Volume in the second shoulder to get some hint of H&S pattern.

Price and Time Confluence??

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Head and Shoulders, SuperBars · 2 Comments 

Jan. 17, 2010

Precise Price and Time-Cycle Confluences are very rare. When they do occur, they tend to influence the outcome very strongly. Here is a scenario in S&P Index where price and time-cycles may be in line for confluence.

$SPX made a low of 666.79 on 03/06/09 (influenced by Number 3? :) and rallied pretty much in a steep run up. Every analyst ever said this is it, its going to turn and fall below March lows’ was thrashed and proven wrong. A brief retracement in June-July ’09 to 200-SMA followed by much publicized H&S pattern (failure) produced another strong rally. This ABC bullish is NOT a Perfect ABC. C retracement is very shallow. Neverthless, it is now coinciding with its first Time-Influenced Cycle (twice the size) with its Price Target. 200% of Time Cycle is on Jan. 19, 2010 and 100% of AB Target is set 1158.78. Near confluence?

Historically these confluences influenced some retracement. Last week’s trading has shown some signs of pullback. Fridays’ Options expiration, holiday weekend may have triggered sell-off. I would be interested in some pullback to test 62% level at least (1048) for another trend up. But I could be wrong like most analysts last year :)

SPX_PriceTimeConfluence

Checkout SuperBars… They never strongly showed RED bars since July 2010..


ABC Bullish

Golds’ Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

November 18, 2009 · Posted in Head and Shoulders · 2 Comments 

Here is Inverse Head and Shoulders’ pattern formation in Gold weekly chart. Late October, Gold broke out of the Neckline (1067) after forming an Inv. H&S Pattern. The distance between the head and the lowest trough in Inv. H&S pattern is about $250. Adding this depth to the breakout level (1067) yields $1316.

GOLD_InvHS_Nov1809

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