Hail Mary pattern is one of the reliable pattern occurs on a late-day (after 3pm ET) sell-off days.
This pattern may be easily detected and traded using the ABC Bullish pattern rules.
This is also Perfect form of ABC Pattern and can be traded using SuperBars and other pivot levels.
The primary conditions to detect this pattern are:
1. Sell-off in the markets.
2. Fib. Bands show clear resistance at the mid-Fib. Bands for every attempted rally.
3. Price trades outside the lower Fib. Band to mark ‘A’.
4. Price trades above (or near) the mid Fib. Band to mark ‘B’.
5. Price makes another lower-high pivot below the mid-Fib. Band to mark ‘C’ with at least 62% retracement.
6. At least ‘B’, ‘C’ pivots must form after 3pm, if not all ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’ pivots form after 3pm ET.
7. Trade using ABC Bullish pattern rules.
8. After triggering an entry, the price trades at accelerated pace, hence the Targets are reached quickly.
9. Must exit the trade by close of the day.
Here is today’s Hail Mary Setup in @ES.
After trading a high of 1088.75 by mid-day, ES started to sell-off. Every attempted rally met
with resistance at the mid-Fib. Band area. Around 3pm, price traded again outside the lower
Fib. Band to mark the ‘A’ pivot at 1068 level. This level was also supported by Value Area
Low (1068.5) and Previous Low (1067.25). About 3.30pm, price attempted to rally above
the mid-Fib. Band (1075.25) and quickly retraced back into the AB leg. At 3.40pm, the price retraced
over 62% and marked ‘C’ pivot to complete ‘ABC Bullish’ pattern. This ABC is also a perfect ABC Setup.
ABC Entry was set above 1071.5. At 3.44pm, price crossed EL with a strong Green SuperBar to signal
a potential ‘Hail Mary’ setup. Stop was set at 1069 with Target levels (62%, 100%, 162% of AB levels:
1073.75, 1076.5, 1081.).
Jan. 13, 2010 (Market Close)
Another spectacular ABC Bullish pattern with perfect targets at 162AB (1145). This ABC is computed on a little larger size. Today’s Morning sell off produced the 84.62% retracement into AB swing. Market structures (MSH, MSLs) were marking the entire ABC Pattern. The was not triggered until the price closed above MidBand (1133) at 0.38 AB Size. The first target was at 1139 (100% AB) and the next targets were 127AB (1141.75) and 162AB (1145).
Jan. 13, 2010
This morning Es continued its Perfect ABC pattern from yesterday’s late-rally. Yesterday’s low (1127.75) was made outside the Fib. Bands. The ‘B’ pivot was made above the Mid-Fib.Band. A 83% retracement into AB produced ‘C’ pivot at 1128.5. These three pivots formed a ‘Perfect’ ABC Bullish pattern. The ‘A’ pivot is also strengthened by the Market Structure Low (MSL) pattern.
The Perfect ABC targets were at 100% of AB (1133) and 162% AB (1135.75). Prior to the open, ES was trading near ValueArea High and pHI cluster (1137), and this may be first resistance area.
Jan. 11, 2010
ES opened strongly higher after trading Globex Range of 1140.75 to 1148.25. Friday’s Value-Range was narrow as the Point of Contact was way below Monday’s Open. The first reaction was range expansion day once price trades above the Globex High. But as soon as the market opened, there was no strength and it appeared the Friday’s POC may be an attraction on the downside. I suspect the earnings jitters are influencing the markets.
1. Market Structure High (MSH) patterns was marked at the open near Globex High (1148). A Good short setup to trade on any weakness with Globex High as the STOP. SuperBars and kTrend will be the trend tools to guide the trade. No clear patterns emerged except a Potential ABC.
Around 10.30am, prices bounced off 200-SMA (1140) to show a tradable bottom.
2. Three Valleys Pattern: One of the rarest but reliable pattern. ES made three lows at 1140, 1138.5 and 1138 in a text book fashion. The range from the top
1148 to 1138 is 10 points. From the three valleys pattern, at least a bounce of 6 points is expected (62%) to the GBXMid range (1144.5).
3. 62% retracement into the range from Globex High to the Day Low…
Inverse Head and Shoulder is one of the greatest pattern to trade. On Jan. 8th morning, ES opened lower after trading Globex range of 1131-1139.5. In the first 15 minutes, Inv. H&S pattern was clearly visible as I marked the Neckline at 1136 level. Also, ABC Bullish pattern was forming from the Globex Low (also MSL). Around 9.50am, ABC Bullish pattern crossed its Entry 1134 level. Confirmed by kTrend, I took the first trade at 1134 with anticipation of Inv. H&S Breakout.
Inv. H&S range from the neckline to the Head (low) was about 5 points. Hence, the target from the Neckline (1136) will be around 1141 area.
The first band of Fib. Zone Pivots on ES was marked between 1139 to 1141. This is another set of targets coinciding with Inv. H&S and ABC Targets.
From 10am to almost 2.30p, ES traded in a rectangle channel (narrow range – 1135 to 1138) and finally traded above the Previous High of 1138.75. By 4pm close, ES traded in the Fib. Zone Pivots band (1139-1141) to close at 1141.5.
Here is the final chart of Perfect ABC…
Reached 162% and 200% of AB Range
A Perfect ABC Bullish is the best way to trade ABC Patterns. This morning @ES produced a Perfect ABC Bullish pattern on 1220 Tick chart. The result was excellent. Here is the description of the ABC Pattern.
1. Overnight (Globex session) produced a range of 1127 to 1134 in @ES, and traded relatively in steep downtrend. At the opening bell 9.30am ET, from the Globex Low of 1137, ES traded higher near the POC level of 1132. This produced the first leg (AB).
2. The Globex Low was printed outside the Fib. Bands. This may have been the first clue for a Perfect ABC. But completion of AB Leg may be stronger indication.
3. Price closed above the mid-Fib Band. This confirms the ‘B’ swing point.
4. Around 10am, market reversed and sold off to 1128 forming ABC Pattern. This setup has all inclinations of Perfect ABC, since A formed outside the Fib. Band, B- Above mid Fib. Band and ‘C’ is forming within the AB leg and completed at least 62% retracement.
5. Now to trade this ABC, I need price closing above the EL. EL was also near the strong cluster of pLow, S1 (1129 – 1130). If Price closes strongly above this range, it is a PERFECT ABC and can be traded upto 100% of its AB Range to 1133. Second Target may be set for 162% of AB at 1136.
6. About 10.45am, Price reached 1133 to make about 3.5 points profit.
7. Next target is set at 162% of AB at 1136.