$SPX is trading near its 50% retracement level (1120) from Oct. 2007 (1576) to the low of March 2009 (666). This level may act as resistance for short-while. Note $SPX.x also trading above 200-SMA on Monthly chart.
Here is Inverse Head and Shoulders’ pattern formation in Gold weekly chart. Late October, Gold broke out of the Neckline (1067) after forming an Inv. H&S Pattern. The distance between the head and the lowest trough in Inv. H&S pattern is about $250. Adding this depth to the breakout level (1067) yields $1316.
Gold is trading in Parabolic arc pattern and may reach 1362 area in next few months.
1350+ is also the target for Inv. Head and Shoulder pattern and ABC’s 3.62 target.
A Trend Trading day. When @ES is over 9 pts up at the open, it is pretty much given that markets may close up strongly. About 70% of the time when @ES and @YM trading up (6 pts for @ES or 50 pts for @YM) pre-market, they close strongly up. The probability factor rises even higher after the first hour if they continue to trade up. So, the question is how far high they move up or move down on trend days? This is where Fib. Zone Pivots are helpful.
Fib. Zone Pivots shows trading extremes of any trading instrument for each trading day. They are used as key guidelines for support/resistance in my trading. They can be applied to any instruments.
Fib. Zone Pivots are computed using yesterday’s range. 50, 62, 100, 138, 162 % of yesterday’s range is added for today’s Pivot (for Resistance) and subtracted from today’s pivot (for Support) to compute the Fib. Zone Pivots.
About 10am, @ES traded near Fib. Zone Bands (138-162) and traded in that zone most of the day. Around 3pm, the breakdown below the Fib. Zone Band (138 level at 1108) resulted a trade up tp FZ100 level (1103). ES stayed mostly upside and Meredith Whitney didn’t scare the serious traders.
ABC Pattern from Friday’s setup. Today’s ABC was triggered around 1068 with targets around 1099.5 (100%) and 162% 1107.75.
@ES Rallied in the morning to trade near 1108.
@ES rallied today and made a high of 1096. CMI also was strongly green until 1pm.
Around 1pm, CMI 5m started showing signs of potential pullback. @ES also rolled over
and traded lower on Bearish CMI setup. About 2.30p, @ES traded near 1089.
Combine Market Internals Indicator shows a Combined Market Trend of Internals of $ADV, $DECL, $TICK, $TRIN, $ESINX, XLF, SPY in Real-Time. CMI shows underlying trend in a Histogram. CMI Ribbon shows the detail of internal trends.
One of my best patterns to trade is ABC. When perfect ABCs form with Market Context, ABCs are far more reliable than other form of ABCs. I use ONE trend indicator (kTrend) and a single Paintbar (SuperBars) to trade these type of ABCs.
Here is a perfect example of how a trade was initiated this morning in @ES.
Just after the first hour, @ES started showing signs of weakness after making a new intraday high. Usually this pullback (weakness) extends more than 78% of prior swing. Around 10.30am, @ES bounced off the 200-MA and started trading above POC (1095.25). The key trade would be to watch for a GlobexHigh *Long position*. If price closes consecutively above GBXHi for 2-bars or more, then trade would clearly signal Upside.
About 10.57am, price started breaking down as ABC Bearish pattern setup. The best trade now is the ABC’s bearish EL with SuperBar Trade. Once SuperBars Trade is below the EL with Bearish (RED color),
a Sell signal is triggered.
Targets are: POC & .62AB area (1095), VAL (1093) and 1.0AB (1092-1093).
Ultimate Target for this ABC Bear is: GBXLo, POC1 and 1.62AB Area: 1088.5
Stop is above the ‘C’ level.
1. ABC Bearish
4. Globex Pivots
When ranges between key resistance or support levels is wide/large,
the mid-point pivots may be used for potential Trades.
Here CMI 5m is Short from 11.10am. Was waiting for a potential
MidR2R3 is at 1084.25. Placed an order to sell at 1084.
Today Gold rallied strong and traded the 1.62 AB Target level at 1111.4.
@ES Trading near Value Area High (1056.75).
Also, it is bit extended from the POC (1052.25).
Targets: 1052.5 (POC level)