Fib. Zone Pivots

January 30, 2010 · Posted in Fib. Zone Pivots, Floor Pivots · Comments Off on Fib. Zone Pivots 

Jan. 30, 2010

One of my pre-market preperation is to figure out market context. I spend about 30-60 minutes reading my trading charts pre-market every day. I open TradeStation and start reading @ES/@YM/@NQ charts in 1220T, Daily, 30m charts to understand how market reacted in the last few days, where the new highs/lows were made, how it closed in the last few days. This preparation is part of my visualization technique and focus on various price action elements.

Pivots play very crucial role in the markets. Knowing when/where/how they act/react adds to traders knowledge/success.

Pre-market, I watch Two type of Pivots: Floor Pivots and Fib. Zone Pivots.

Fib. Zone Pivots concept was popularized by Robert Krausz and was also written by J.T. Jackson in his book. Eventhough their research involved of knowing various statistical trading zones concepts for various times of the day, I limit myself to just using Pivots as key support and resistance areas. I think knowing where the extreme Fib. Zone Pivots exist will be greatly helpful in trading.

In the following chart, I plotted Fib. Zone Pivots on @ES 30minute chart and highlighted the areas where each day how price bounced off. Fib. Zone Pivots indicator automatically plots these levels from yesterday’s Open,High,Low and Close and the Pivots, FZPivot Bands remain all day.

For example On Jan. 27th, Price bounced off FZ62% level (1082) to rise to 1103 level following day. On Friday, Jan 29, the Globex Low was made within the FZBand (1070.25-1066.75) and price returned and closed to inside the band (1068.75) by End-of-Day.

FibZPivots_Jan2910

Globex Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots

Confluence of Price Levels

January 27, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, CMI, Globex Pivots, SuperBars · Comments Off on Confluence of Price Levels 

Jan. 26, 2010

Price confluence is an amazing phenomenon. Today many price levels were confluencing to suggest the key targets and reversals. This morning produced a great ABC Bullish pattern with an entry level near 1087.5. Although not a perfect ABC to trade, it is one of my favorite as it showed its strength right at the open. Once this ABC started to trade above the Mid-Fib. Bands (1088.75), a solid entry is confirmed. I was also looking at the Fib. Zone Pivots for potential target to the upside…. Fib. Zone Pivots were placing today’s target in the area of 1100 to 1102.5. Note pHi is at 1099.5. The confluence of these levels may be the target for the day.

Here is the Intraday TradeBlog:
http://www.surinotes.com/index.cfm?CSEL=1001&pDate=20100126

Around 10am, ABC Bull started to take-off and reached the 1st target: 1092.75 (62%). The next target would be 100%AB at 1097. (See my 10.07am chart).
At 10.22am, ES reached Globex High and started to retrace 3 points (See 10.30am chart).
At 11.42am, ES started to rise and head towards the defined Fib. Zone Target (1100) while respecting the VAH, POC, pHi Levels…
At 12.48am, ES reached the Fib. Zone Target of 1100 and showed signs of reversals. This was also evident in CMI 5m chart as CMI
showed significant Divergence at 1100 level.
By 4pm, ES sold off from 1100 levels to reach 1086.

ABC Bullish
$ES_Jan261017

Fib. Zone Levels
ES610_Jan261018

End of Day Sell off
ES1220_Jan2610

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands
Globex Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots
CMI

S&P’s Weekly Analysis

January 24, 2010 · Posted in SuperBars · Comments Off on S&P’s Weekly Analysis 

Jan. 24, 2010

S&P made a Swing high of 1576 in October 2008 and a Swing Low of 666 in March 2009. S&P closed at 1091 on Friday, Jan. 22nd. Friday’s Close is just below the 50% level of the range from 2008’s SwingHigh and 2009’s Swing Low. There were two major trend-cycles in 2009. The first cycle started in late March 2009 and the second upcylce started in 3rd week of July 2009. Both these cycles are shown by the SuperBars. Last week’s decline did not deter the up trend as price prints green SuperBars. A close below 1030 or so may trigger the SuperTrend to turn pre-bearish to Bearish signal. Most bounces/rises from the sharp sell-off are either very shallow (< 38% bounce) or strong (>=62%) of prior swings. If the up trend is not broken in the next few days, S&P’s next target may be 1228-1250 area in the next few weeks.

Pl. see my Jan. 17th Price and Time Confluence post for downside targets if the downtrend continues.

SPX_Weekly

Symmetric Triangle Failure

January 22, 2010 · Posted in Failed Chart Patterns, Fib. Bands, Globex Pivots, SuperBars, Symm. Triangles · Comments Off on Symmetric Triangle Failure 

Jan. 21, 2010

Symmetric Triangles are continuation patterns and are very reliable. Very rarely (<20%) I have seen failures in Symm. Triangles. Today's @ES showed a methodical failure in Symm. Triangle pattern. Overnight trading range (Globex) was up as it traded Globex high of 1139.25 to Globex low of 1130.75. At the open, ES was trading near the Globex Mid level (1135). A series of Lower-High swings and Higher-Low Swings prices formed the Symmetric Triangle pattern. My first assumption was to trade the pattern from long side as trendline breakout above GBXHi: 1139.25. The prior trend before formation of the pattern is in uptrend. 4th swing in the Symm. Triangle was marked around 1132. Once price trades below the 4th swing point, it confirms the Failure of Symm. Triangle. Around 10.15am, price closed below 1132 triggering a Short and confirming the Symm. Failure. The Stop is set above the GBXMid and VAH: 1135. The range (SIZE) of the Symm. Triangle (1 to 2) is about 10 points. This is the target size from the breakdown level below 4 to 1122. SymmTriangleFailure_Jan2110

S&P Price and Time Confluence Update

January 21, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, SuperBars · Comments Off on S&P Price and Time Confluence Update 

Jan. 21, 2010

$SPX.X fell 21.5 points today on Obama’s plan to restrict banks and financial institutions trading activities. SPX also may be showing signs of reversal as it trades near the 100%AB level (1158.75) and key turning date Jan. 19th. Jan. 19th marks the 200% of the ABC Major Cycle from July 8, 2009. If SPX continues its correction, the targets may be 62% (1048) and 1000 levels. SuperBars also signaling first Orange (pre-bearish) bar to start of Bear trend.
SPX_PriceTimeConfluence2_Jan2110

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands

Gold ABC Bear Update…

January 20, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, SuperBars · Comments Off on Gold ABC Bear Update… 

Jan. 20, 2010

After a series of Up/Down swing days, Gold is finally confirming its ABC Bear Entry Setup as it trades below (EL) 1128 level. I also would like to see a Strong Bearish (RED) SuperBar for further confirmation. The potential targets for the ABC Bear are 62% (1067), 100% (1009).

Gold_ABCBear_Jan2010

ABC Bearish

Trade Log: Jan. 15, 2010

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, ABC Bullish, Globex Pivots, Market Structures, SuperBars · Comments Off on Trade Log: Jan. 15, 2010 

On Friday, another ABC Bearish pattern emerged from the overnight Globex high (1147.25) to the Globex Low (1137.5). Both Globex High and Globex Low were also marked as Market Structures (MSH and MSL) patterns. At the market open, ES retraced 66% into the AB to mark ‘C’ (1144) pivot and completed an ABC Bearish Pattern. A Close below 200-SMA and EL (1142.75) produced a Sell signal into AB pattern. Targets were: 1138 at 62%, 1134 at 100% and 1128.25 at 162%.

Around lunch time, ES reached its 162% AB Target: 1127.5..
Another ABC Bullish (BLACK, small range) pattern also reached its near-term target (100% AB): 1131.75

TradeLog_Jan1510

ABCBear_Blog_Jan1510

ABC Bullish
Globex Pivots
Market Structures

Price and Time Confluence??

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Head and Shoulders, SuperBars · 2 Comments 

Jan. 17, 2010

Precise Price and Time-Cycle Confluences are very rare. When they do occur, they tend to influence the outcome very strongly. Here is a scenario in S&P Index where price and time-cycles may be in line for confluence.

$SPX made a low of 666.79 on 03/06/09 (influenced by Number 3? :) and rallied pretty much in a steep run up. Every analyst ever said this is it, its going to turn and fall below March lows’ was thrashed and proven wrong. A brief retracement in June-July ’09 to 200-SMA followed by much publicized H&S pattern (failure) produced another strong rally. This ABC bullish is NOT a Perfect ABC. C retracement is very shallow. Neverthless, it is now coinciding with its first Time-Influenced Cycle (twice the size) with its Price Target. 200% of Time Cycle is on Jan. 19, 2010 and 100% of AB Target is set 1158.78. Near confluence?

Historically these confluences influenced some retracement. Last week’s trading has shown some signs of pullback. Fridays’ Options expiration, holiday weekend may have triggered sell-off. I would be interested in some pullback to test 62% level at least (1048) for another trend up. But I could be wrong like most analysts last year :)

SPX_PriceTimeConfluence

Checkout SuperBars… They never strongly showed RED bars since July 2010..


ABC Bullish

Options Charts using ABC Pattern

January 15, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Options · Comments Off on Options Charts using ABC Pattern 

Jan. 14, 2010

Here is an example of how ABC Patterns can be viewed on Options Charts. Baxter International (BAX) was showing an interesting ABC Bullish pattern as the price emerged from a low of $45 to $62 forming an ABC Bullish Pattern. From late October, the pattern was setting up to rise with Entry Level of $54.85. At the entry level, the target was 100AB at $67. Time wise, 100AB was marked for at 65 calls is Feb. 17th, 2010.

The BAX Feb. 65 Calls were priced between 10c to 15c. Current BAX BM also has an ABC Bullish pattern with Price targets of 100 AB at 0.60c, and 1.62AB at 0.90c. Current BAX BM price is at 0.50c.BAX_Options_Jan1410

ABC Bullish

Another ABC Bullish on Larger Scale

January 13, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands, Market Structures · 2 Comments 

Jan. 13, 2010 (Market Close)

Another spectacular ABC Bullish pattern with perfect targets at 162AB (1145). This ABC is computed on a little larger size. Today’s Morning sell off produced the 84.62% retracement into AB swing. Market structures (MSH, MSLs) were marking the entire ABC Pattern. The was not triggered until the price closed above MidBand (1133) at 0.38 AB Size. The first target was at 1139 (100% AB) and the next targets were 127AB (1141.75) and 162AB (1145).

ABCBullish_MSHMSL

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands
Market Structures

Next Page »