Perfect ABC with MSL

January 13, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands, Floor Pivots, Point of Control, PriceProfile · Comments Off on Perfect ABC with MSL 

Jan. 13, 2010

This morning Es continued its Perfect ABC pattern from yesterday’s late-rally. Yesterday’s low (1127.75) was made outside the Fib. Bands. The ‘B’ pivot was made above the Mid-Fib.Band. A 83% retracement into AB produced ‘C’ pivot at 1128.5. These three pivots formed a ‘Perfect’ ABC Bullish pattern. The ‘A’ pivot is also strengthened by the Market Structure Low (MSL) pattern.

The Perfect ABC targets were at 100% of AB (1133) and 162% AB (1135.75). Prior to the open, ES was trading near ValueArea High and pHI cluster (1137), and this may be first resistance area.PerfectABC_Jan1310

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands

Globex Pivots
Floor Trading Pivots

PriceProfile
Market Structures

Gold in ABC Bearish Pattern

January 12, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish · 5 Comments 

Gold may be ready to retrace? Gold has ABC Bearish pattern and today’s sell off (23 pts down) could be the first day of retracement. Gold made a high of 1227 December 2009. Its recent swing low of 1074 and its retracement (C at 1162) may be signaling a potential ABC Bearish Pattern.

Closing below the Entry Level of 1128 is the first signal of confirmation of ‘C’. If the bearish trend continues, the first target is near 1067 (62%) and 1009 (100%) of AB Range.

The Time Targets in Gold are: Jan 28 to March 05.Gold_Jan1210_Targets

TradeLog: Jan 12, 2010: Three-Valleys, Broadening and ABC

January 12, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, ABC Bullish, CMI, Three Valleys · Comments Off on TradeLog: Jan 12, 2010: Three-Valleys, Broadening and ABC 

Jan. 12, 2010

Today, ES continued its yesterday’s significant patterns: ABC-Bearish and Three-Valleys in their bearish trend. ES Opened near 100% of AB Range around 1133-34. Until noon ES attempted several times to close above the 200-SMA. CMI5 was red most of the day until 2pm. Around 2pm, the first bullish signal was triggered by CMI5m Green bar.

Today’s another major pattern: Broadening Bottom. This pattern was visible right from the open. I thought it was going to be a Flat Bottom Broadening pattern. Around 11am, the pattern made its last failed attempt to trade above 200-SMA and sold off until 2pm.

The late day rally produced another ABC Bullish pattern aided by CMI5 strong green bars.

TradeLog_Jan1210

ThreeValleys_ABC_Jan1210

ABC Bullish

CMI
Market Structures

Three Valleys and A River Pattern (Update)

January 12, 2010 · Posted in Three Valleys · Comments Off on Three Valleys and A River Pattern (Update) 

Here is a completed Three Valleys and A River Pattern. Three valleys are distinctly visible in the pattern. After trading 61.8% retracement in to its prior range yesterday, ES sold off in the overnight session (Globex). From the high of 1144, a 100% retracement (river) of its prior range is expected to 1134.

ThreeValleys_River2_Jan1210

Three Valleys Pattern

January 11, 2010 · Posted in Fibonacci Bands, Globex Pivots, Three Valleys · Comments Off on Three Valleys Pattern 

Jan. 11, 2010
ES opened strongly higher after trading Globex Range of 1140.75 to 1148.25. Friday’s Value-Range was narrow as the Point of Contact was way below Monday’s Open. The first reaction was range expansion day once price trades above the Globex High. But as soon as the market opened, there was no strength and it appeared the Friday’s POC may be an attraction on the downside. I suspect the earnings jitters are influencing the markets.

1. Market Structure High (MSH) patterns was marked at the open near Globex High (1148). A Good short setup to trade on any weakness with Globex High as the STOP. SuperBars and kTrend will be the trend tools to guide the trade. No clear patterns emerged except a Potential ABC.

Around 10.30am, prices bounced off 200-SMA (1140) to show a tradable bottom.

2. Three Valleys Pattern: One of the rarest but reliable pattern. ES made three lows at 1140, 1138.5 and 1138 in a text book fashion. The range from the top
1148 to 1138 is 10 points. From the three valleys pattern, at least a bounce of 6 points is expected (62%) to the GBXMid range (1144.5).

3. 62% retracement into the range from Globex High to the Day Low…

Fib. Bands
Globex Pivots
Floor Trading Pivots
kTrend
Market Structures

Trades_Jan1110

Trade Log: Inv. H&S and ABC Bullish Patterns

January 10, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands, Market Structures · 4 Comments 

Inverse Head and Shoulder is one of the greatest pattern to trade. On Jan. 8th morning, ES opened lower after trading Globex range of 1131-1139.5. In the first 15 minutes, Inv. H&S pattern was clearly visible as I marked the Neckline at 1136 level. Also, ABC Bullish pattern was forming from the Globex Low (also MSL). Around 9.50am, ABC Bullish pattern crossed its Entry 1134 level. Confirmed by kTrend, I took the first trade at 1134 with anticipation of Inv. H&S Breakout.

Inv. H&S range from the neckline to the Head (low) was about 5 points. Hence, the target from the Neckline (1136) will be around 1141 area.

The first band of Fib. Zone Pivots on ES was marked between 1139 to 1141. This is another set of targets coinciding with Inv. H&S and ABC Targets.

From 10am to almost 2.30p, ES traded in a rectangle channel (narrow range – 1135 to 1138) and finally traded above the Previous High of 1138.75. By 4pm close, ES traded in the Fib. Zone Pivots band (1139-1141) to close at 1141.5.

INVHS_Jan08107

INVHS_Jan08107

FZP_Jan08103

InvHS_Jan08104

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands

Globex Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots

kTrend
Market Structures

Perfect ABC (Update)

January 7, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands · Comments Off on Perfect ABC (Update) 

Here is the final chart of Perfect ABC…
Reached 162% and 200% of AB Range

PerfectABC_Jan0710

Perfect ABC Bullish Setup

January 7, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fib. Bands, Fibonacci Bands · 4 Comments 

PerfectABCBullish_Jan0710
ES1220_Jan07102

A Perfect ABC Bullish is the best way to trade ABC Patterns. This morning @ES produced a Perfect ABC Bullish pattern on 1220 Tick chart. The result was excellent. Here is the description of the ABC Pattern.

1. Overnight (Globex session) produced a range of 1127 to 1134 in @ES, and traded relatively in steep downtrend. At the opening bell 9.30am ET, from the Globex Low of 1137, ES traded higher near the POC level of 1132. This produced the first leg (AB).

2. The Globex Low was printed outside the Fib. Bands. This may have been the first clue for a Perfect ABC. But completion of AB Leg may be stronger indication.

3. Price closed above the mid-Fib Band. This confirms the ‘B’ swing point.
4. Around 10am, market reversed and sold off to 1128 forming ABC Pattern. This setup has all inclinations of Perfect ABC, since A formed outside the Fib. Band, B- Above mid Fib. Band and ‘C’ is forming within the AB leg and completed at least 62% retracement.

5. Now to trade this ABC, I need price closing above the EL. EL was also near the strong cluster of pLow, S1 (1129 – 1130). If Price closes strongly above this range, it is a PERFECT ABC and can be traded upto 100% of its AB Range to 1133. Second Target may be set for 162% of AB at 1136.
6. About 10.45am, Price reached 1133 to make about 3.5 points profit.
7. Next target is set at 162% of AB at 1136.

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands
Globex Pivots

Trade Log: Jan. 05, 2010

January 5, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, CMI, Floor Pivots, Globex Pivots · 2 Comments 

Blog_Jan0510

$ES_Jan051014

@ES was pretty lethargic at the open. Started off with a Rectangle channel and traded between
1126 and 1130.75. At 10am, I was expecting ES to trade near Pivot Point (1126) and trend
to continue lower. About 10.15am or so, ES started to rally and started showing strength.
SuperBars and CMI both picked up strength with Green bars.

1. My first trade was a setup to trade one-tick above the Globex Pivot on a breakout. Placed a Long
order to trade upto GbxHigh from 1129. closed near 1130 to 1130.5
Stops were placed below the vWAP (1127).

2. My second trade was the best trade today. After closing my first trade, I placed
a Sell order to short 3c at 1132. I was near certain that R1 (1132.5) will be
resistance and could retrace to pHi. Around 10.45, my trade was triggered and
quickly retraced. After some side-ways anxious time, it started its color and
traded below GBXHI (1130.75). Closed all around 1130 to lock 2 points… Watch the
Pipe Pattern from R1. This is one of the high probability pattern.

3. Some one wrote to me during the setup asking the current retracement was an ABC Bullish Pattern.
It was, but it is NOT a perfect ABC Bullish pattern and internals were clearly
weak. Hence, I wanted a clear confirmation to trade.

Around Noon, the price retraced to GBXHigh (1130.75) and signaled ABC Bearish (Perfect)
pattern. This is one of hte best pattern to trade. I placed another trade around 1130
to short. This time the targets were near 1127. ABC Retraced more than 100%, see
one of the chart.

4. I have NOT traded this as I was little skeptic about PP, YHI bounce
from 1126.5. Prices made a dramatic rally to R1: 1132.5. Did not participate
as I was busy working something else.

ABC Bearish
Fib. Bands

Globex Pivots
Floor Trading Pivots
CMI

Trade Log: Jan 04, 2010

January 4, 2010 · Posted in CMI, Floor Pivots, Globex Pivots · Comments Off on Trade Log: Jan 04, 2010 

Trades_Jan0409

Today was an interesting day. A Strong open (about 8 pts up in @ES) signaled
a solid up day with Dow may closing at least 100 points up. Pre-market Flag setup
is also an interesting setup with a potential trade.

Pre-market, price retraced to the Globex Mid point in a Flag setup.
Initial reaction was to wait for the Pivot (1114.75) buy.
But right after the open the trend was clear. I wanted to buy above
Globex High (1120.5) with a setup to pHI: 1124 to Fib. Zones Range (1125-1126).

1. I placed an order of 8c at 1121 just above GBXHigh. Filled at 1121.25.
Targets were set at 1124-1125. Also Stop set at 1118 (3 points), just
below the bands… About 10-12 minutes later all Contracts hit the targets.
Closed few at pHI. Check Internals, CMI and kTrend for a pullback.

2. Around 11am, market lost its momentum and trading very slow. Still
uptrend as SuperBars were strong. No Patterns formation visible other than simple breakouts.
Trade in the direction… But my CT instinct kicked in on red CMI Ribbon.
So, I took a 3c short with a very short time frame ideas. Also, betting on market
trading at R2 and may be tired. Wanted 1-2 points on 3c. About 10-15m
later, still prices were printing GREEN SuperBars. I was in 1 pt profit
so, I peeled them out slowly.

3. 1.30pm: Still thinking it will move up. CMI5 turned RED around 12.30pm.
R2 seems solid resistance. Saw first Red on CMI15…. A risky setup.
Traded Short thinking there will be TICKDUMP and then moveup. Wanted a CT
trade with Quick-in-Out for TickDump. Placed a stop above R2. Got just 1 point
for all 3cs about 2pm…

4. 2.30 pm: Placed a Buy above R2 with 3c.. Never traded. Around 3pm, I closed and walked off.

Only Four Trades today in @ES. Not focused on other instruments as no clear patterns were
emerging other than straight upside.

Here is the Link to Todays’ Daily Chart Blog on my website: http://www.surinotes.com

http://www.surinotes.com/index.cfm?CSEL=1001&pDate=20100104

Fib. Bands
vWAP Bands

Globex Pivots
Floor Trading Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots

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