Trade Log: Jan. 15, 2010

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, ABC Bullish, Globex Pivots, Market Structures, SuperBars · Comments Off on Trade Log: Jan. 15, 2010 

On Friday, another ABC Bearish pattern emerged from the overnight Globex high (1147.25) to the Globex Low (1137.5). Both Globex High and Globex Low were also marked as Market Structures (MSH and MSL) patterns. At the market open, ES retraced 66% into the AB to mark ‘C’ (1144) pivot and completed an ABC Bearish Pattern. A Close below 200-SMA and EL (1142.75) produced a Sell signal into AB pattern. Targets were: 1138 at 62%, 1134 at 100% and 1128.25 at 162%.

Around lunch time, ES reached its 162% AB Target: 1127.5..
Another ABC Bullish (BLACK, small range) pattern also reached its near-term target (100% AB): 1131.75

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Price and Time Confluence??

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Head and Shoulders, SuperBars · 2 Comments 

Jan. 17, 2010

Precise Price and Time-Cycle Confluences are very rare. When they do occur, they tend to influence the outcome very strongly. Here is a scenario in S&P Index where price and time-cycles may be in line for confluence.

$SPX made a low of 666.79 on 03/06/09 (influenced by Number 3? :) and rallied pretty much in a steep run up. Every analyst ever said this is it, its going to turn and fall below March lows’ was thrashed and proven wrong. A brief retracement in June-July ’09 to 200-SMA followed by much publicized H&S pattern (failure) produced another strong rally. This ABC bullish is NOT a Perfect ABC. C retracement is very shallow. Neverthless, it is now coinciding with its first Time-Influenced Cycle (twice the size) with its Price Target. 200% of Time Cycle is on Jan. 19, 2010 and 100% of AB Target is set 1158.78. Near confluence?

Historically these confluences influenced some retracement. Last week’s trading has shown some signs of pullback. Fridays’ Options expiration, holiday weekend may have triggered sell-off. I would be interested in some pullback to test 62% level at least (1048) for another trend up. But I could be wrong like most analysts last year :)

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Checkout SuperBars… They never strongly showed RED bars since July 2010..


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