Fib. Zone Pivots

January 30, 2010 · Posted in Fib. Zone Pivots, Floor Pivots · Comments Off on Fib. Zone Pivots 

Jan. 30, 2010

One of my pre-market preperation is to figure out market context. I spend about 30-60 minutes reading my trading charts pre-market every day. I open TradeStation and start reading @ES/@YM/@NQ charts in 1220T, Daily, 30m charts to understand how market reacted in the last few days, where the new highs/lows were made, how it closed in the last few days. This preparation is part of my visualization technique and focus on various price action elements.

Pivots play very crucial role in the markets. Knowing when/where/how they act/react adds to traders knowledge/success.

Pre-market, I watch Two type of Pivots: Floor Pivots and Fib. Zone Pivots.

Fib. Zone Pivots concept was popularized by Robert Krausz and was also written by J.T. Jackson in his book. Eventhough their research involved of knowing various statistical trading zones concepts for various times of the day, I limit myself to just using Pivots as key support and resistance areas. I think knowing where the extreme Fib. Zone Pivots exist will be greatly helpful in trading.

In the following chart, I plotted Fib. Zone Pivots on @ES 30minute chart and highlighted the areas where each day how price bounced off. Fib. Zone Pivots indicator automatically plots these levels from yesterday’s Open,High,Low and Close and the Pivots, FZPivot Bands remain all day.

For example On Jan. 27th, Price bounced off FZ62% level (1082) to rise to 1103 level following day. On Friday, Jan 29, the Globex Low was made within the FZBand (1070.25-1066.75) and price returned and closed to inside the band (1068.75) by End-of-Day.

FibZPivots_Jan2910

Globex Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots

Confluence of Price Levels

January 27, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, CMI, Globex Pivots, SuperBars · Comments Off on Confluence of Price Levels 

Jan. 26, 2010

Price confluence is an amazing phenomenon. Today many price levels were confluencing to suggest the key targets and reversals. This morning produced a great ABC Bullish pattern with an entry level near 1087.5. Although not a perfect ABC to trade, it is one of my favorite as it showed its strength right at the open. Once this ABC started to trade above the Mid-Fib. Bands (1088.75), a solid entry is confirmed. I was also looking at the Fib. Zone Pivots for potential target to the upside…. Fib. Zone Pivots were placing today’s target in the area of 1100 to 1102.5. Note pHi is at 1099.5. The confluence of these levels may be the target for the day.

Here is the Intraday TradeBlog:
http://www.surinotes.com/index.cfm?CSEL=1001&pDate=20100126

Around 10am, ABC Bull started to take-off and reached the 1st target: 1092.75 (62%). The next target would be 100%AB at 1097. (See my 10.07am chart).
At 10.22am, ES reached Globex High and started to retrace 3 points (See 10.30am chart).
At 11.42am, ES started to rise and head towards the defined Fib. Zone Target (1100) while respecting the VAH, POC, pHi Levels…
At 12.48am, ES reached the Fib. Zone Target of 1100 and showed signs of reversals. This was also evident in CMI 5m chart as CMI
showed significant Divergence at 1100 level.
By 4pm, ES sold off from 1100 levels to reach 1086.

ABC Bullish
$ES_Jan261017

Fib. Zone Levels
ES610_Jan261018

End of Day Sell off
ES1220_Jan2610

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands
Globex Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots
CMI

Symmetric Triangle Failure

January 22, 2010 · Posted in Failed Chart Patterns, Fib. Bands, Globex Pivots, SuperBars, Symm. Triangles · Comments Off on Symmetric Triangle Failure 

Jan. 21, 2010

Symmetric Triangles are continuation patterns and are very reliable. Very rarely (<20%) I have seen failures in Symm. Triangles. Today's @ES showed a methodical failure in Symm. Triangle pattern. Overnight trading range (Globex) was up as it traded Globex high of 1139.25 to Globex low of 1130.75. At the open, ES was trading near the Globex Mid level (1135). A series of Lower-High swings and Higher-Low Swings prices formed the Symmetric Triangle pattern. My first assumption was to trade the pattern from long side as trendline breakout above GBXHi: 1139.25. The prior trend before formation of the pattern is in uptrend. 4th swing in the Symm. Triangle was marked around 1132. Once price trades below the 4th swing point, it confirms the Failure of Symm. Triangle. Around 10.15am, price closed below 1132 triggering a Short and confirming the Symm. Failure. The Stop is set above the GBXMid and VAH: 1135. The range (SIZE) of the Symm. Triangle (1 to 2) is about 10 points. This is the target size from the breakdown level below 4 to 1122. SymmTriangleFailure_Jan2110

Trade Log: Jan. 15, 2010

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, ABC Bullish, Globex Pivots, Market Structures, SuperBars · Comments Off on Trade Log: Jan. 15, 2010 

On Friday, another ABC Bearish pattern emerged from the overnight Globex high (1147.25) to the Globex Low (1137.5). Both Globex High and Globex Low were also marked as Market Structures (MSH and MSL) patterns. At the market open, ES retraced 66% into the AB to mark ‘C’ (1144) pivot and completed an ABC Bearish Pattern. A Close below 200-SMA and EL (1142.75) produced a Sell signal into AB pattern. Targets were: 1138 at 62%, 1134 at 100% and 1128.25 at 162%.

Around lunch time, ES reached its 162% AB Target: 1127.5..
Another ABC Bullish (BLACK, small range) pattern also reached its near-term target (100% AB): 1131.75

TradeLog_Jan1510

ABCBear_Blog_Jan1510

ABC Bullish
Globex Pivots
Market Structures

Another ABC Bullish on Larger Scale

January 13, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands, Market Structures · 2 Comments 

Jan. 13, 2010 (Market Close)

Another spectacular ABC Bullish pattern with perfect targets at 162AB (1145). This ABC is computed on a little larger size. Today’s Morning sell off produced the 84.62% retracement into AB swing. Market structures (MSH, MSLs) were marking the entire ABC Pattern. The was not triggered until the price closed above MidBand (1133) at 0.38 AB Size. The first target was at 1139 (100% AB) and the next targets were 127AB (1141.75) and 162AB (1145).

ABCBullish_MSHMSL

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands
Market Structures

Perfect ABC with MSL

January 13, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands, Floor Pivots, Point of Control, PriceProfile · Comments Off on Perfect ABC with MSL 

Jan. 13, 2010

This morning Es continued its Perfect ABC pattern from yesterday’s late-rally. Yesterday’s low (1127.75) was made outside the Fib. Bands. The ‘B’ pivot was made above the Mid-Fib.Band. A 83% retracement into AB produced ‘C’ pivot at 1128.5. These three pivots formed a ‘Perfect’ ABC Bullish pattern. The ‘A’ pivot is also strengthened by the Market Structure Low (MSL) pattern.

The Perfect ABC targets were at 100% of AB (1133) and 162% AB (1135.75). Prior to the open, ES was trading near ValueArea High and pHI cluster (1137), and this may be first resistance area.PerfectABC_Jan1310

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands

Globex Pivots
Floor Trading Pivots

PriceProfile
Market Structures

TradeLog: Jan 12, 2010: Three-Valleys, Broadening and ABC

January 12, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bearish, ABC Bullish, CMI, Three Valleys · Comments Off on TradeLog: Jan 12, 2010: Three-Valleys, Broadening and ABC 

Jan. 12, 2010

Today, ES continued its yesterday’s significant patterns: ABC-Bearish and Three-Valleys in their bearish trend. ES Opened near 100% of AB Range around 1133-34. Until noon ES attempted several times to close above the 200-SMA. CMI5 was red most of the day until 2pm. Around 2pm, the first bullish signal was triggered by CMI5m Green bar.

Today’s another major pattern: Broadening Bottom. This pattern was visible right from the open. I thought it was going to be a Flat Bottom Broadening pattern. Around 11am, the pattern made its last failed attempt to trade above 200-SMA and sold off until 2pm.

The late day rally produced another ABC Bullish pattern aided by CMI5 strong green bars.

TradeLog_Jan1210

ThreeValleys_ABC_Jan1210

ABC Bullish

CMI
Market Structures

Three Valleys and A River Pattern (Update)

January 12, 2010 · Posted in Three Valleys · Comments Off on Three Valleys and A River Pattern (Update) 

Here is a completed Three Valleys and A River Pattern. Three valleys are distinctly visible in the pattern. After trading 61.8% retracement in to its prior range yesterday, ES sold off in the overnight session (Globex). From the high of 1144, a 100% retracement (river) of its prior range is expected to 1134.

ThreeValleys_River2_Jan1210

Three Valleys Pattern

January 11, 2010 · Posted in Fibonacci Bands, Globex Pivots, Three Valleys · Comments Off on Three Valleys Pattern 

Jan. 11, 2010
ES opened strongly higher after trading Globex Range of 1140.75 to 1148.25. Friday’s Value-Range was narrow as the Point of Contact was way below Monday’s Open. The first reaction was range expansion day once price trades above the Globex High. But as soon as the market opened, there was no strength and it appeared the Friday’s POC may be an attraction on the downside. I suspect the earnings jitters are influencing the markets.

1. Market Structure High (MSH) patterns was marked at the open near Globex High (1148). A Good short setup to trade on any weakness with Globex High as the STOP. SuperBars and kTrend will be the trend tools to guide the trade. No clear patterns emerged except a Potential ABC.

Around 10.30am, prices bounced off 200-SMA (1140) to show a tradable bottom.

2. Three Valleys Pattern: One of the rarest but reliable pattern. ES made three lows at 1140, 1138.5 and 1138 in a text book fashion. The range from the top
1148 to 1138 is 10 points. From the three valleys pattern, at least a bounce of 6 points is expected (62%) to the GBXMid range (1144.5).

3. 62% retracement into the range from Globex High to the Day Low…

Fib. Bands
Globex Pivots
Floor Trading Pivots
kTrend
Market Structures

Trades_Jan1110

Trade Log: Inv. H&S and ABC Bullish Patterns

January 10, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Fibonacci Bands, Market Structures · 4 Comments 

Inverse Head and Shoulder is one of the greatest pattern to trade. On Jan. 8th morning, ES opened lower after trading Globex range of 1131-1139.5. In the first 15 minutes, Inv. H&S pattern was clearly visible as I marked the Neckline at 1136 level. Also, ABC Bullish pattern was forming from the Globex Low (also MSL). Around 9.50am, ABC Bullish pattern crossed its Entry 1134 level. Confirmed by kTrend, I took the first trade at 1134 with anticipation of Inv. H&S Breakout.

Inv. H&S range from the neckline to the Head (low) was about 5 points. Hence, the target from the Neckline (1136) will be around 1141 area.

The first band of Fib. Zone Pivots on ES was marked between 1139 to 1141. This is another set of targets coinciding with Inv. H&S and ABC Targets.

From 10am to almost 2.30p, ES traded in a rectangle channel (narrow range – 1135 to 1138) and finally traded above the Previous High of 1138.75. By 4pm close, ES traded in the Fib. Zone Pivots band (1139-1141) to close at 1141.5.

INVHS_Jan08107

INVHS_Jan08107

FZP_Jan08103

InvHS_Jan08104

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands

Globex Pivots
Fib. Zone Pivots

kTrend
Market Structures

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