S&P’s Weekly Analysis

January 24, 2010 · Posted in SuperBars · Comments Off on S&P’s Weekly Analysis 

Jan. 24, 2010

S&P made a Swing high of 1576 in October 2008 and a Swing Low of 666 in March 2009. S&P closed at 1091 on Friday, Jan. 22nd. Friday’s Close is just below the 50% level of the range from 2008’s SwingHigh and 2009’s Swing Low. There were two major trend-cycles in 2009. The first cycle started in late March 2009 and the second upcylce started in 3rd week of July 2009. Both these cycles are shown by the SuperBars. Last week’s decline did not deter the up trend as price prints green SuperBars. A close below 1030 or so may trigger the SuperTrend to turn pre-bearish to Bearish signal. Most bounces/rises from the sharp sell-off are either very shallow (< 38% bounce) or strong (>=62%) of prior swings. If the up trend is not broken in the next few days, S&P’s next target may be 1228-1250 area in the next few weeks.

Pl. see my Jan. 17th Price and Time Confluence post for downside targets if the downtrend continues.

SPX_Weekly

S&P Price and Time Confluence Update

January 21, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, SuperBars · Comments Off on S&P Price and Time Confluence Update 

Jan. 21, 2010

$SPX.X fell 21.5 points today on Obama’s plan to restrict banks and financial institutions trading activities. SPX also may be showing signs of reversal as it trades near the 100%AB level (1158.75) and key turning date Jan. 19th. Jan. 19th marks the 200% of the ABC Major Cycle from July 8, 2009. If SPX continues its correction, the targets may be 62% (1048) and 1000 levels. SuperBars also signaling first Orange (pre-bearish) bar to start of Bear trend.
SPX_PriceTimeConfluence2_Jan2110

ABC Bullish
Fib. Bands

Price and Time Confluence??

January 17, 2010 · Posted in ABC Bullish, Head and Shoulders, SuperBars · 2 Comments 

Jan. 17, 2010

Precise Price and Time-Cycle Confluences are very rare. When they do occur, they tend to influence the outcome very strongly. Here is a scenario in S&P Index where price and time-cycles may be in line for confluence.

$SPX made a low of 666.79 on 03/06/09 (influenced by Number 3? :) and rallied pretty much in a steep run up. Every analyst ever said this is it, its going to turn and fall below March lows’ was thrashed and proven wrong. A brief retracement in June-July ’09 to 200-SMA followed by much publicized H&S pattern (failure) produced another strong rally. This ABC bullish is NOT a Perfect ABC. C retracement is very shallow. Neverthless, it is now coinciding with its first Time-Influenced Cycle (twice the size) with its Price Target. 200% of Time Cycle is on Jan. 19, 2010 and 100% of AB Target is set 1158.78. Near confluence?

Historically these confluences influenced some retracement. Last week’s trading has shown some signs of pullback. Fridays’ Options expiration, holiday weekend may have triggered sell-off. I would be interested in some pullback to test 62% level at least (1048) for another trend up. But I could be wrong like most analysts last year :)

SPX_PriceTimeConfluence

Checkout SuperBars… They never strongly showed RED bars since July 2010..


ABC Bullish

S&P’s 50% Retracement level (Monthly Chart)

November 19, 2009 · Posted in Fibonacci Levels · 1 Comment 

$SPX is trading near its 50% retracement level (1120) from Oct. 2007 (1576) to the low of March 2009 (666). This level may act as resistance for short-while. Note $SPX.x also trading above 200-SMA on Monthly chart.

SPX_M_Nov1909